However, two things are going to make your project a success or failure:  (1) Your ARV is realistic and (2) You don't go over budget on the demo. 

Don't think that one particular out of state market will shoot you to success or abject failure.

Buying money pits is a sure road to failure.

And when I do need to analyze a failure, knowing Griffith's crack theory or how hydrogen embrittles polished metal comes in super handy.   

HOA in theory can remove free rider market failure if well managed, when there are costs and/or needs for management shared by all.HOA kind of philosophically touches on the oft debated (and oft oversimplified) ideological debate between centralization or decentralization of authorityMy thesis would be: I suspect that HOA developments have higher property values in general, however when controlled for development budget on a per home basis, I would wonder if this actually holds up over time.I have heard anecdotal stories of corruption within HOA bodies, and mismanagement. 

I loved going back and thinking about some past successes/failures, then breaking down, what was the product of my good or bad decisions, and what was due to external factors. 

In the event I'm a big fat failure they can foreclose by doing an SPE (Special Purpose Entity) Transfer of the LLC in which they become the managing owner and it doesn't affect me personally.

Failure rate is extremely high when you don't have the cash reserves to back you up.

For instance, let's say you are pitching a deal for a fix and flip and it looks like you have a solid plan, the investor has confidence in your endeavor; because you are a first-time flipper and or fledgling REI they know the investment is at high risk for failure to wasteful effort and you will likely take longer than advertised they are going to want the lion's share of the deal and 1st lien position.

In other instances, there is a failure to fully appreciate costs and risks.