My thought is the need to be 3 x higher than rent decreases the more money you make.Example would be in my situation my take home is less than 3 x mortgage when you include retirement maxing and other deductions.... however keeping 65 percent of

This tends to increase the repair costs, decrease the leverage, and decrease the returns - but increases # of units.Assumes 1 house is $25,000 to purchase w/ leverage so $25,000 goes into 1 house or $25,000 in S&P 500 stock.S&P 500 values taken Jan 1st of every year for the last 50 and year-by-year returns calculated.

An extraordinary decrease in home values is always possible.

If you can purchase the types of properties you eventually want buy and hold then it might make sense to just start in with the BRRR, as your amount of capital shouldn't decrease after you refinance each place you buy. 

It's hard to see the prices going down 30% (the value i of the tax credit) by waiting until after it expires for a price decrease.

It's a shrinking population that saw rents decrease in the last year or two when the rest of the country was on fire.

Those are all recurring costs that will decrease your cash flow.3.

I can definitely see a decrease in occupancy level, not so much in ADR.

Further after years of strong appreciation, I would want to make sure my first buy cash flows so that I could absorb a decrease in market value.Best of luck, Andrew  

Instead, because the loan is amortized, the interest you pay decreases each month, while the principal portion increases each month (less interest paid as the principal decreases).So, in your calculation, you're assuming more interest is paid than would truly be the case.