Rents will come down and students will be able to rent closer to campus and won't have to go out beyond Wescott.You would be well within the predicted OK zone but you can count on rents going down. 

So basically, the idea is that even though all the numbers look great, the vacancy can not be predicted because people with low salaries tent to be unstable and there for we will have a lot of days, week and hopefully not month when nobody will be living in that duplex.

Work started with demolition on August 20th as predicted and within 2 weeks the place was a shell.

I'm not predicting gloom and doom for all or anything like that, just sharing a little about how we're handling it and maybe a couple lessons about why, financially, it won't matter a ton to us.Live below your means. 

a certain predictable return or a portion of the profit of the deal?

The purpose of reserves is to be there when you need it and the interesting thing about capex is it is not always so predictable.  4 or 5 years might become 4 or 5 months.  

Seems like most of the deal syndicators use the IRR as their advertised return which can be misleading especially if it is based on 2-3 years of interest only loan and then an exit in a certain amount of years at a fixed price which is pretty damn hard to predict what a property is worth, far out into the future. 

Factor that in with tightened lending for fears of defaults and while I doubt we get a flood of foreclosures (they'll just offer deferment/adjustments) the smaller buyer pool and increased inventory appearing post lock down would surely bring prices down.I'm bearish, but my predictions three weeks ago on the corona virus thread were spot on. 

Age and condition are known and the replacement date is predictable. 

Just a prediction.