The 2% rule may have been a fine metric after the GFC in 2009-2012ish, but as time went along and prices began to rebound, the 2% rule has became virtually impossible in all but a select few markets. 

Now it's rebounded my initial down payment and some gains so I want to make the best financial moves. 

It's hard to get people excited about "catching a falling knife" and you don't know you hit bottom until you rebound. 

Houston Real Estate Highlights in October Single-family home sales continued their post-Hurricane Harvey rebound as volume rose 7.5 percent year-over-year with 6,381 units sold;Single-family home sales remain 2.8 percent ahead of 2016’s year-to-date volume;Total property sales increased 6.6 percent with 7,614 units sold;Total dollar jumped 10.8 percent to $2.1 billion;The single-family home median price rose 3.9 percent to $226,491, which represents an October high;The single-family home average price increased 2.7 percent to $285,858, also the highest level for an October;Single-family homes months of inventory grew year-over-year to a 3.9-months supply, but is down from a 4.3-months pre-Harvey peak – the result of a surge in consumer demand for housing;Townhome/condominium sales rose 5.8 percent, with the average price down 1.1 percent to $195,393 and the median price down 3.1 percent to $153,000;Leases of single-family homes rose 13.6 percent with the average rent up 2.8 percent to $1,776;Volume of townhome/condominium leases jumped 34.8 percent with average rent up 2.9 percent to $1,533.HAR still encourages anyone who has housing available for temporary occupancy (up to 12 weeks) to please post it on our Harvey Temporary Housing page at www.har.com/temporaryhousing to provide housing to those in need.http://www.har.com/content/mls/?

To test my thinking, I created a simple model that projected total cash flow and equity over 5 years if I:Bought a good, cash-flowing MFH now and recession hit in 2019Waited and bought an MFH in 2019 during a recessionWaited and bought an MFH in 2020 during a recessionThe model assumes that a recession results in a 10-20% drop in housing prices which rebound over 1-2 years.

Also, I believe this town will rebound.

Houston Real Estate Highlights in September: Single-family home sales staged an impressive post-Hurricane Harvey rebound, rising 4.2 percent year-over-year with 6,913 units sold;On a year-to-date basis, single-family home sales remain 2.3 percent ahead of the 2016 volume, despite Harvey’s effect on Houston housing;Total property sales rose 3.4 percent with 8,150 units sold;Total dollar volume jumped 10.2 percent to $2.3 billion;At $232,000, the single-family home median price rose 5.5 percent, achieving a September high;The single-family home average price increased 5.4 percent to $291,767, also a record high for a September;Single-family homes months of inventory rose year-over-year from a 3.9-months supply to 4.1 months, but that is below the healthier 4.4-months supply that prevailed during the two months leading up to Harvey;Townhome/condominium sales fell 5.8 percent, with the average price up 3.5 percent to $208,215 and the median price up 8.4 percent to $159,950;Leases of single-family homes shot up an unprecedented 83.6 percent with average rent up 7.9 percent to $1,886;Volume of townhome/condominium leases surged 92.2 percent with average rent up 5.4 percent to $1,601.HAR continues to encourage anyone who has housing available for temporary occupancy (up to 12 weeks) to please post it on our Harvey Temporary Housing page as soon as possible at www.har.com/temporaryhousing to provide housing to those in need.http://www.har.com/content/newsroom/

As long as he can manage it, it doesn't make sense to longterm rent it.The property has appreciated with the rebound from the recession, and is now worth over $300K.THE QUESTIONSSo, if banks don't like the idea of refinancing a property that doesn't have a longterm lease on it, and they're not willing to recognize the AirBnB income, what do you do?

Dont be afraid to fail but keep your risk level low and you will be able to rebound. 

We sincerely want to help the community move on and rebound.