For my next, I'm less worried about the cash on cash return, and more focused on trying to predict the ARV accurately so that when I refinance I get most or all of my cash back out.3.

I feel as though most expenses are somewhat predictable whereas property taxes increase year after year, some years more aggressively than others.

Trying to predict the next Bluestar airlines is much harder then picking a cash flow market.

Practice your due diligence and don’t let news articles ,predictions ,or some website scare you out of an otherwise good asset

You can't predict when items will actually fail or just need repair. 

Wells Fargo recently put out a report detailing the correlation between the inversion of the 10yr vs 1yr Treasury and predicting recessions.

I think it's a pretty predictable market, but we don't see too many areas in Indianapolis with wild swings each year.The biggest problem that I see in Irvington is the limitations you have on style and materials you can use to renovate homes.

You need to know how long to visualize trends in the area and what kind of variance to predict. 

Impossible to know, but Redfin clearly predicts localized volatility and appears to be offering a hedge or flight to safety, which investors may find useful.

Basically you are buying mortgages that have steady predictable yield.