Is one year too far out to be predicting ARV?  

This creates some long-term potential, and matched with the other two major assets, affords a degree of safety and predictability.

Let's forget about appreciation then since that is hard to predict.

Nevada's is unique--they assess the structures at replacement cost and the land at "market value", so I haven't exactly figured out how to predict future assessed values in Nevada (hopefully some Nevada folks will chime in?).

thanks for the responding john based on the comps around the neighborhood my property ARV is between 300-350k when I'm done and the market is climbing slowly so who's knows what it would be worth in 5-10 yrs hopefully more i plan to rent out 3 of the units and live in the 4 unit for 1-2 yrs and bank rents and manage property myself i don't have a exact concrete number on operating cost yet but i predict i will be bringing in anywhere between 3200-4000 dollars a month in rent and then also my unit when i move would bring in more income my strategy goal is to put the money away as income and then apply for a fha loan for my next property take advantage of 3-5% down and buy another 3-4 unit multi family and live there and grow my portfolio by owning and managing my own properties but i know on the third property i will have needed to put down 20-30 percent which would be fine because i have equity and assets and also options on what route i would like to take my question you kind of already answered was is this a smart decision to go no mortgage route and assume so much risk by using up all of my funds to get in the game because sometimes when i talk to people they make it seem like I'm crazy for wanting to start out this route but i feel like if they had the opportunity to start out independent why wouldn't they go that route if you know what I'm trying to say also i am a little nervous seeing that i am 29 and this will be my fist time taking on my on investment and running my own business and projectsalso any advice,pointers,tips any positive tips would be greatly appreciated also on a side note on all my mechanicals for the house i will be buying everything that i can that comes with a energy saving rebate, boilers,water tank,thermostat, etc i strongly believe in saving money and being energy efficient  on whatever i can 

compare your expenses vs income, and try to predict future appreciation. it may be easier to manage and maintain on unit rather than three, but the three units may pay more taxes than the one. will the rent be the same or can you charge more for the 3 units than the apartments in the 1 unit?  

Ultimately, it is nearly impossible for anyone to predict when a market downturn is going to happen.

Be wary of embellished predictions.  

The City has been applying for CNI money with no success, but I predict they will get it in the next year or two.

If one of the 10 greatest investors of the last century doesnt think they can predict a correction, why do all of us then think we are Nostradamus?