If you were actually able to buy it at that price, rehab it and sell it for the price you are predicting it would actually be a good deal.

What metrics do you track to predict real estate price movements?

Obviously, at 6% appreciation, the trade looks better, but you can count on that, and I can't predict if I'll have better appreciation at the new property.What do you think?

New regulations in place make sure you can actually afford your property before they are approved.Homeownership is nearing historic lows, with a surge in rental growth predicted in the next 5 years, according to a Wall Street Journal article from 6/8/15.That said, I would advise to rent the current place, and then rent in your desired neighborhood.

.- No Prepayment Penalty: make sure there is no PPP, as these investments are very hard to predict an exact time frame.

If we sold today, I predict we'd get between $350K and $450K as-is.

It's difficult to use it to make predictions.

The true value of a property (or anything) is the price at which the parties agree to an arm's length transaction, with all parties having full information and neither acting under any kind of duress, and all potential purchasers having an equal ability to purchase.Many of the buying techniques you see touted hear are predicted on one party (the buyer) having greater information, or one party (the seller) being under some form of duress (like financial troubles) or the potential deal not being available to all possible buyers (like a direct mail lead of a property not listed on the MLS.)So in a way, in order to buy below market you have to know something others don't (about rehab costs, say), or find a "motivated" (read desperate) seller, or hope to buy something other prospective buyers don't have a chance to bid on.Now here is the catch.  

Also,  the real estate in Houston is still quite affordable, and i predict the housing market in Houston will continue to grow for the next 20 years as long as the big oil companies are not moving overseas.  

I can see how you would predict 20%+ rates of return with 5% annual asset appreciation factored in on a leveraged investment.I think we would agree that it is possible to generate high rates of return on a 20k down payment.