What should the market rates be before I consider refinancing out this loan? 

Are there any tools/strategies to calculate a high appreciation market vs high cash flow market?   

I recommend building your "core 4" (Real Estate Agent, Property Manager, Contractor, Lender) in your target market.

But hey its money whether its a living is another matter For the future I am switching to the buy it off the market and put it on the MLS with a realtor method.

So will more inventory hit the market in 2025, probably, but the key is, is it quality STR inventory hitting the market. 

What market study have they done to confirm the net returns of 10-15%2.

Lots of off market deals. 20% rent increases in the last year.

Or is there going to be understanding for digging deeper when the initial screening process produces these apparent inconsistencies?

Best way to do it is to have a simultaneous closing...look for an investor friendly title company and a hard money lender that is used often in your market and explain what you would like to do and ask them to help you accomplish it...Everyone likes to feel like an expert, they would happy to show you how it is done.

There are better more experienced operators out there... don't be swayed by the Brandon Turner marketing machine like I was.