I suppose I haven't speculated on that.

No need for you to speculate on what you'll qualify for.

Looking at projected ROI numbers can be confusing because of the baked in speculation (appreciation and equity) and additional numbers you have to consider. 

Just some speculation that may not pan out (I have 0 investments in either west CV or IB).Detached duplexes appear to be 2 single family homes but they are on one deed and typically have only one water meter. 

I get 25% with your numbers plus $14,600 for year five, which is pretty nice in most peoples book.Yes, its speculation.

At this point, this investment appears to be highly speculative---I'd focus on property investments that allow you to calculate your risks.

In Dallas there is a lot of speculation whether their new development project to make the Trinity River kind of like the Riverwalk in San Antonio will increase local market values.

But if you're not willing to speculate on land plays or other forms of higher risk, that might eliminate areas going for a cap of say 12-15% (maybe a troubled park, troubled area, small park, etc.).

To motivate tenants to move, I suspect I would need to offer 5-10k in this case (that’s pure speculation since I never done so).

Obviously that is speculation, and based on political climate.