A hard money loan is going to go through an appraisal to make sure your numbers are accurate and the LTV meets the hard money person's criteria, then you get the loan.Now, on that note, if you have a private lender, that is a different story, if your private lender is lending you the money and your lender feels comfortable with your experience and knowledge on being able to pay them back with interest, then that is a cash loan.

And you want accurate predictions about what MIGHT happen if competing humans take action?

I suspect your 5% estimate for rent increase is pretty accurate.  

The main thing to realize is that this is a very rough estimate; based on your market (property taxes, utilities, etc), you can change from 50% up or down so that your estimate is closer to your actual expenses.Insurance is based on your own shopping around - I include all insurance as one lump sum in my calculations.So when you're talking about getting an accurate number for your more in-depth studies, you need to make sure you consider the "normal" incomes and expenses.

The point is the 45% to 50% number is accurate when all the rentals are averaged out.Now, think about what would happen if you had only one rental.

We also measured the farm to make sure that the size was accurate.

The most accurate way to figure ARV is from "comps" or comparable sales (same kind of house in same area) that have sold in the last 3 to 12 months (depending on your market's volatility).

I don't think anyone can give an accurate prognosis on how this will end, if it ever will.

Good luck to you.Have the contractors do line item breakouts for back up and you will start to learn what things cost and it will give you confidence to put fairly accurate rehab estimates together in the future.

The remaining 2/3 of each expense is taken and 2/3 of the total cost is depreciated.I'm not fond of the by number of rooms method as it does not always give an accurate depicture.