Not worth it to me to gamble in the winter only for it to come out poor because the weather didn't cooperate.

You are gambling in an arena with a hefty anti.

Maybe see if they have a two- or three-month trial period and take the gamble. 

It is a risk, a gamble, but it might pay out. 

Not unless you truly enjoy gambling. 

Sure they can but my word of warning is... it's gambling not investing and you set the limit you are willing to lose before you roll the dice. 

I saw earlier posts about the new law, SB 978, investor suitability requirements for trust deed investments.California now requires that when selling or brokering all of, or an interest in trust deed investments, hard money lenders and other providers have to:1) obtain information about the investor, some of which was not necessarily required under previous law, including, but not limited to* net worth* other investments* education or investment experience / level of sophistication* career history* age* income* tolerance for riskThere is a new form from the California Department of Real Estate that can be used to gather some of the information.The form, although it asks questions some of my investors are not exactly thrilled to answer, is not all that bad.2) The big part is that we now have to "consider the investor's circumstance and whether or not the investment is suitable for them."

Besides, appreciation is gambling, and it is also long term, so it doesn't effect your current financial analysis.  

Amortized over 30 yrsIncome:Total Gross Monthly Rent: 2,845 (if both units are rented/1,500 if owner occupies top unit and rents out bottom)  Seller thinks 2,945/month for bothFixed Landlord-Paid Expenses:Electric & Propane: 360/month (seller currently has them on one bill so I put 360 into the 'electricity' field)Water & Sewer: 65/monthTrash: tenant pays for their own trash service / owner occupier when living on first floor unit hauled his own trash to dumpInsurance: 90/monthProperty taxes: 550/monthVariable Landlord-Paid expenses: (A bit of a gamble: I put in low percentages here in efforts to make this look like a better deal, rather than being more conservative with higher/safer percentages, so I’m curious your take on this:Vacancy: 3% (88$/month) -I don't think it'll be difficult to rentRepairs and Maintenance: 3% (88$/mo) -It's freshly rehabbed...though yes, I know there will be unseen repairsCapEx: 3% (88$/mo) -It's freshly rehabbedManagement fees: 3% (88/mo and I would be the manager)Future Assumptions:Annual income growth: 2% Annual PV Growth: 2%Annual Expenses Growth: 2%Sales Expenses: 9%Are there any other expenses I'm not seeing, i.e: inspection/appraisal (or does the seller pay those) etc?  

It's less of a gamble than just buying a parcel and hoping someone will want it one day.Clint