Yes it is just specualtion, but if you are basing your future on guaranteed appreciation, imagine having that huge amount to pay every month and NOT having the appreciation to reward you at the end.

@Toby Fellowsno way - 100% no - hard pass.high risk low reward. 

Real estate is not easy, but it sure is rewarding if you can pull yourself up by the bootstraps and get creative. 

Although there are numerous safeguards, contracts, escrows, that can be used to mitigate the additional risk, that risk can not be eliminated.

Must give my opinion.I've taken numerous training classes/ workshops over the last decade.

You "just" need to understand the risks and rewards and decide if that works for you.

Second is the ongoing rental stream.You will always "numerically" make more money developing/renting versus buying/renting. 

I believe that this approach minimizes downside by exploring the numerous currently for sale opportunities with assumable mortgages.

In the meantime I read every book I could find on commercial real estate; attended every commercial real estate meeting in the Houston area, and spoke to numerous commercial brokers.

This is a safe place for my CO investors to vent.In all seriousness, the dramatic policy increases I have seen numerous investors stomach right now is making us all scratch our heads and wonder what alternative options are out there.