If I was to bet on appreciation alone, it would seem a bit risky here, yah I may hit a jackpot, but rely on luck is a bad strategy (in my opinion) - since I don't have experience in RE, I would like to minimize my risk, and do investment instead of speculation.Maybe I didn't look at enough in California, or just don't really know where and how to look for area that cash-flow (Fresno, Bakerfield?)

There's no jackpot.