I don't exactly follow what you mean by "where we are in the cycle," but assuming you mean that RE is at or near it's peak in value, that would not influence my decision, especially if I could pay it off within a couple years with my W2 income.

It is good to understand and decide where on the spectrum you want to operate, but it won't influence your analysis very much.https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/4445/36354-041...

Full Title: Ten things I learned from The Real Estate Guys at How to Win Funds and Influence People. 

If I thought that way seven months ago, how does that influence the next seven months.Many forum posts are many months old, and only a few gets updated, but most are just forgotten unless there is an update on a old post. 

Oakland has quite a heft city transfer tax for example compared to other states in CA) you really just need to know how those changes may or may not influence your investment.

I think that you're influencing the people around you.I dont think that so many people are now investing in real estate and becoming landlords.

In my opinion, a pro should never influence your offer unless their experience tells them you will lose out on the deal.

It comes down to debits and credits for the most part but there is also the logistical and sometimes conflicting component of investor requirements and 3rd party requirements (MI company, junior lien holder, senior lien holder, GSE, etc.) that at the least, influence the transaction or, can control the transaction beyond the seller's or lender's objectives outright.

@Tyler Crawfod - how many people in your circle of influence know what you’re trying to do?

I am certainly no expert, but would say a recession should cause unemployment to rise, not that the low unemployment somehow influences the recession to kick off.