I am either looking at the historic district, Orange Park, or Mandarin.

Research the specific market in Buda and the historical appreciation rates for similar properties.

If the internal rate of borrowing doesn't change, I think there is still some room for mortgage rates to drop since the gap between internal rate of borrowing and the 10-year bond rates are still higher than historical averages so there is room for rates on 10 year bonds to lower.

San Diego RE has historically outstanding appreciation and cash flow for the long term buy n hold. 

This implies, applying the historical average appreciation, you have return appreciation over $3.5k whether the tenant pays or not.  

From an historical perspective, May vacancy rate is 3.0 percentage points higher than the 15.4% average recorded since the beginning of Q2 2014.OutlookReis is tracking office construction activity that will deliver 1.2 million square feet to the metro by the end of the year, and net total absorption will be positive 640,000 square feet.

(at least for now) Even with a somewhat slower year than last in rental demand, even with interest rates returning to historical norms, overall home prices in the Gatlinburg market continue to remain stable, if not slightly climbing. 

They clearly have poor historical rent growth so cash flow will be lucky to keep pace with inflation.

They take historical data/analysis and run it through a model....

If rent goes up ONLY by historical average of last 20 years, that means rents are now $2,730-$2,948.