If you have your mind made up the STR world is over saturated and you're not going to make any money at it - then that's probably true. 

Here is what I know about the situation:He somewhat got in his mind that his house was worth $280k.Comps show that similar houses which were remodeled sold for ~$240k a few months back.The house he's moving to cost him $260k, so that's what he's looking at getting out of the one he's selling.The house needs about $15k of renovations.It's not currently listed, and the market has been fairly hot in this area, so I am trying to figure out a way to make this work, throughout conversations, education, and some reasoning.I'm thinking about ways to:pay less than what the house is worth.make sure he gets the amount of money he needs out of this deal.close on it before they put in on the market (saturated with California cash buyers) I am thinking about telling them that I am willing to pay "$260,000", which is what I know he wants, by offering him seller's financing. 5% interest rate over 5 years with a balloon payment.If I reverse the $260000 after 5 years, it looks like this:Seller finances $200000 over 5 years at 5%:Downpayment: $12,000Seller interest over 5 years: $48,076.10Principal paid over 5 years: $15,268.85Balloon payment after 5 years : $184,731.15Total:  12,000 + 48,076 + 15,268 + 184,731.15 = $260075.15That would help him get to his $260k price.Now for my side of the deal:Down payment: 12000Seller financed loan: 200000Repairs: 15000Total = $227,000That house will appraise at about $250-260k after repairs.Am I headed into the right direction with this proposal?

However, if that market is saturated with dilapidated junk, it may be easy to buy, but who would you sell it to? 

However, the market in Kansas City is quickly becoming saturated with multi family projects and the banks are already showing signs of pulling back on lending for new multi family deals. 

Do you think the Dallas rental market is now saturated or is it still a good investment?

However my analysis has shown that there is a lot of saturation of STRs in Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge leading to lower rates and occupancy.

But I'm not apposed to flips, whatever the market dictates.I have do have a question, is the Baltimore area saturated or is it still a viable market to invest?

Once I hit my target rental number, I'll pay off all the mortgages and get fat.  

Larger developers are building upscale apartments like crazy here (literally #3 market in the country for these luxury builds) which has saturated the market making tenants less inclined to pay top dollar for older multi family residences.

Regardless of market saturation and the limit of true great deals, you will always have a plethora of wholesalers.