A couple of friends are currently speculating in pre-construction in the west loop of chicago.

I understand value is a subjective term, but from what I'm seeing we're basically speculating that current prices will continue to move higher.

That, to me, is the difference between an investor in these markets vs. a speculator that just buys at retail with little down and hopes the market goes up but has no exit strategy if it doesn't.To the 2nd point of taking advantage of volatility, if you are disciplined about buying and fixing right to create a strong equity position, and not buying when you can't, then not only does market volatility matter less, as you'll have an equity cushion, but also buying in this way will tend to do your market timing for you, as good deals are more plentiful in a down market.

I'm not big on speculating. 

I suspect SM will have better appreciation than Texas, but that is of course speculation.

The refinance - Let's speculate a little and be conservative with it.

Do you cash flow or more speculated appreciation?  

Lender's will not speculate on appreciation or future income potential;  the need a provable income to justify the debt.

And I mentioned initially, selecting cash or financing the deal depends on her needs which have not been mentioned, so we are speculating, but your ascertion was taking cash would be better, my reply is not always

They don't have any commitment from a tenant...so the rates are highly speculative...Matt, Nathan...thanks for your thoughts too....ive told them to give me a call when they have a tenant.thanks again everybody