This is my basis strategy when accumulating primary from where it was 400k-500k back in 2010-2013 era; the appreciation is double inflation, 6% ; and interest rate is 3% ; making this strategy is equivalent to 16% CD rate.

We know SF owners would have a better risk/reward profile because appreciations are typically 150-200% higher than inflation rate.

Those waiting for a recession will be waiting for a LONG time...it isn't happening this economic cycle, the stubbornly high inflation rates indicate that.A few points above to reiterate: (1) real estate is LOCAL, while there may be some worrying trends nationally, the Harford County market is strong and will stay that way IMO, (2) timing the market is generally a fools errand if you have a long term outlook (if you're looking at short term investments then timing factors in more), (3) if you're looking for a place to live (not strictly an investment) then there are a lot of other important factors to consider.Bottom line is that if you have the means, and if you intend to own the place for 5 or more years, I personally wouldn't hesitate to jump in.

With a .6% ROE and a current inflation rate of 3.3% year over year, you are losing ground unless the projected appreciation rate of your property is high enough to overcome these negative numbers.

The housing market experienced an unprecedented boom during the low interest rate period, leading to inflated prices and unsustainable growth.

Inflation.  

I would consider something which negative cash slightly negate, that is cash flow after conservatively accounting for expenses is negative with but under the principal paydown in month one, but it would require the ability to do forced appreciation.When I am making comparisons against other investments I assume 3% appreciation (which about matches inflation).

The value of property and the rental income it generates typically rise with inflation, protecting your wealth.

That has led to inflation, which has led to the Fed's hand being forced to raise interest rates. 

- Woo-Girl Inflation?