Quote from @Sanjay Bhagat: 1) Is there a syndicate/s in BP which has gone through all the 4 real estate life cycle (recovery, expansion, hyper-supply, and recession) ?

We joke that it's recession-proof because the Depression never ended.

If I want to borrow money to increase my returns either a mortgage for the house or a margin loan for stocks, I can borrow money at 6.5% at 5x leverage (20% down) on the home taking my returns from 8-10% to 14%-20%.To borrow money for MSFT, I can only borrow at 2x leverage (50% down) but I pay prime+2% (or 10%), so my expected returns go from 15-20% to 20-25%.However, the loan for microsoft is a margin loan, so if we go into a recession and I end up underwater, the bank will force me to sell my google shares to pay off their loan. 

With interest rates climbing gradually and the "potential" for a recession, the need for housing is still at an all-time high and people are choosing apartments for several reasons.

I can’t say I disagree with the analysis, just think (I’m sure this will sound incredibly stupid in the future) ultimately bonds and mortgages are likely to trade in a very narrow band the next few months, without a really nasty recession I find it hard to see them getting much below the 3.75% they hit Monday, I also think the Fed wants to keep the number below 4.25% because while I don’t think the economy is in a recession or anything it’s clear to me and I think the Fed as well l, that the economy probably can’t handle another year of rates above that, they will lower rates & possibly even taper qt to achieve that outcome.

For someone that's not as conservative, or a different view on the cycle, they might have a different opinion than me on all of this.2) Sponsor quality check: (takes about 45 minutes per deal)I believe that a great sponsor can take an average looking deal and make it great, and that in mediocre sponsor can take a fantastic looking deal and make it bad (especially if there is a severe recession).

As a moderator can you guide me:1) Is there a syndicate in BP which has gone through all the 4  real estate life cycle (recovery, expansion, hyper-supply, and recession) ?

.- Generally landlord-friendly state, no rent control- Secure government jobs/contracts make the real estate market much more resilient to recessions / major corrections- 15-minute drive to the Capitol of the United States- 4 Seasons- 15-minute drive to Arlington, Virginia (Amazon Headquarters 2 ((2017 announced, 2030 is bringing 25,000 new high-paying    jobs to the area)), Boeing Headquarters (2022), Microsoft Headquarters (2021), CoStar Headquarters (2024), Bloomberg    Headquarters (2017 expanded), Deloitte, and the list goes on)Thesis:Although more companies continue to go back to the office, there will be a shift toward a good amount of workers being able to be in hybrid roles.

We will have a light recession + higher inflation, but not hyperinflation and this euphoria we've faced in the last 4 weeks.

This likely means at least a recession (and would be bad for most).