The easiest way to understand why is to ask yourself how mortgage rates have been able to move down by more than 1.5% since late 2023 despite the fact that the Fed never cut rates during that time.The same principle works in reverse as well, as seen during the massive rate spike in early 2022 when mortgage rates moved 1.5% higher before the Fed ever hiked.How about an example from the last time the Fed actually cut rates in a non-emergency scenario?

The combined effect is that premium increases will normalize going forward.I have a feeling if I had an investor on the phone that was reading headlines about insurance premium spikes, the above would satisfy them.  

Having said that, we try to time it with unusually high income (like selling stock or getting big bonus or a big spike in biz income).

Recently, with the spike in rates and prices, it's been nearly impossible to find 15% CoC, but I have been able to find lower returns at 5-10%.

I think Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg prices have lowered the average yield overall after the spike in 2021 would be the only reason. 

I also when things were hot before interest rate spikes I just followed what Lennar was doing. they had a flat fee of 5k.. which for thier product was basically 1% buyer agent fee.. my product was / is 700k plus so  I was just posting 9750.. flat fee and had no problem with agents bringing in buyers . 

I think the one thing that Airbnb doesn't mention much that is taking away from their business is the spike in direct booking platforms for the top performing hosts and competition from VRBO /Booking.com/Other Niche OTAs.

The pandemic brought an influx of buyers to the area and the number of new STR owners has doubled in the last 1-2 years - check out Airdna.co to see the growth spike. 

Hence they already tell to reduce the rate possibly in September.In all fairness to the unpredictability argument, the Fed had data showing massive spikes of inflation in 2021 while also knowing that the US government had injected trillions of dollars of stimulus into the economy during the pandemic but decided to pass it off as "transitory" due to "supply chain shocks" (not wrong, but wildly overblown). 

Down in parts of Texas and Florida there are massive spikes in inventory while in other areas like the northeast and part of the midwest, the markets are on fire.