We could still cash flow with this deal but I just hate to go forward and shrink our cash flow with the possibility of a ballon payment after the 5 years.

I would want $200-$400 per unit per month, this shrinks your targets but keeps you safer.I suggest you get to MF as soon as you can, might take a while but that should be your goal.

Everyone has a different definition of risk, and it's helpful to let them fully voice their concerns and particularly their Big Fear (also known as the Worst-Case Scenario).Only once your partner feels heard can you begin to address their fears and concerns.Fortunately, while there are no guarantees in real estate investing, there are plenty of ways to shrink your down-side risk to nearly zero.

Secondly When I try to use the BRRRR calculator the cash flow shrinks after refinancing with 75% arv because why?

shrinking? 

Even if the amount of housing stays the same, if the buyer/renter pool shrinks then it changes the equation dramatically

And more parks close then open so the supply is shrinking.  

I normally ignore appreciation projections (if I can) and look at the demand for whatever i'm investing in to determine if the demand will continue to grow or it will shrink.

With more “fha approved” competing condo units available, the “premium” for the currently approved condos will shrink of course....but how much of that will be the non approved ones rising in value and how much of that will be the currently approved units units decreasing in price due to now more “approved competition”.

At first I read a lot of positive data, then I met an investor for St Louis who mentioned he's gone away from KC because it was a shrinking market.