Knowledge is power   I can think of a few things that would be really useful for predicting an areas home values or rent in the future.

you'd still get to make money in REI, with a secured predictable return, you'd just have to figure out another way down the line to be building equity and getting the tax benefits of ownership.hope this helps! 

Forced Apperception (BRRRR or buying at a discount) allows me to build in equity from the beginning of the investment in case I need to fire sale the property for an unforeseeable reason.Debt-Paydown and Tax-Benefits are just a result of owning real estate and can be more-or-less predicted over a time period.

Pros:- Everything is all in one place- Easier to manage, less hassle (likely)- More predictable - Easier paperwork Cons: - Less liquid (have to sell all or none) - All eggs in one basket Just off the cuff, those are my initial thoughts. 

Thanks Stuart.I don't think a "thesis" is necessary for real estate investing.Your mixing "thesis" with speculation and prediction IMO$1m in cash is retirement for someone that knows what they are doing in "low barrier" markets like you mention.Same can't be said for higher entry markets.Those that don't know real estate will loose no matter where or how they invest.Personally, I don't care about appreciation as I don't get out of bed unless I can net cashflow 20% net on a deal.For example, just bought a 6 unit in a B class area for $160,000.Currently occupied and renting for $3,000pm.Once minor rehab of $50,000 is completed, rents will be $4,500.I have an offer to sell as is for $250,000.ARV is $350,000.When interest rates go down, value will increase even further due to commercial lending being easier.No need for appreciation on such deals.I'll take them all day long over any appreciation potential.Again, just my opinion and each to their own.

I want to purchase properties all over the U.S. in specific areas that my wife and I calculate and predict high returns on with multi family units, apartments, duplexes, etc.

I bought the land for $180 per 1 lot (4 adjacent lots, making one big rectangle)I don’t think anyone is quibbling with your comps or predicted sale price.  

You need to be making predictions on a property by property basis of both cash flow and IRR.

You can't predict what the HOA fee will be next year, assessments and changes in rules. 

And to date, not 1 of the naysayers and doompreachers has come onto BP to recant there "certainty" predictions that were SOOooo wrong.