You just don't know if your investments will pay off and that is the gamble.

He is authentic, high energy, a jedi of business and wealth creation, and a master of accountibility.

It's a gamble.

But its not unlike gambling in a casino.  

So many others "settle" and take the deal in hopes for higher sales prices in time, they are literally gambling on continued appreciation to take the deal down.

Don't get me wrong; there are plenty of issues/problems/quirks that old houses have that new houses don't, and an old house can obviously have hidden problems and big repair/maintenance bills too--which is why thorough due diligence is fundamental to REI...but, the point is: a brand new house is not a foolproof solution to repairs/maintenance headaches (and in some cases, a brand new house can be a much bigger gamble than an older house).This is a particularly important lesson for inexperienced investors, who tend to be the most prone to "shiny object syndrome" (the tendency to let nice aesthetics distract from real, underlying issues).

It could appreciate but I consider that gambling.

Even if there's a small chance of getting caught, I'm not going to risk 18 months in the clink plus big fines and having my loan called plus ruining my creditworthiness just for a lower rate personally, but I'm not a gambling man. 

You hopefully won't lose much in that gamble but that is what all tax liens are, a gamble.

Dont want to gamble it and I intend to access it at 10k downs for low end properties.