However, if you want to stay in SFR's I would suggest working with someone who can locate deep discounted properties and give you some equity going in so you are not gambling on appreciation kicking in.  

If this property is really owned by somebody addicted to gambling then there is likely deferred maintenance. 

And in any case, is appreciation not just risk with no control (i.e. gambling)?

It's a gamble but it may be the only way to escape without a major loss.

For one or two, its a gamble where the absolute savings is not worth the risk.

I never thought about appreciation as gambling but it makes sense.

OR I would learn a skill-based facet of gambling (poker, blackjack, for example) and see if I could multiply it that way. 

It really does seem like a gamble but I would think that this place will appreciate.  

That being said, also no guarantee you can get the bid so the cost of inspections can be a gamble too.Best of luck!

In other words, I'm wondering if all HOA fees should be considered in excess of the maintenance-vacancy-CapEx calculations, or maybe all of this just a big gamble.