I don't think there is "most likely scenario".Each note has its own history, behavior and performance.All of the scenarios you mentioned can happen and I run into all of them during the years I am investing in notes, and note status can change on daily basis (a borrower that is working, healthy or married today might change status tomorrow).The tip I can give you is that when you are doing due diligence prior of investing, you should take worst case scenarios and check what will be your profit in such scenarios.If you are well protected and have multiply exit strategies, you will be able to earn even in such scenarios, and of course earn much more in more optimal scenarios.I can tell you 3 things about the note you mentioned - - I like it is a medium term note (13.75 years, not the 20 or 30 years note)- The LTV is very good, so you have good protection here- I think I have read somewhere that statistically there is a higher chance that a note that have once been non-performing will become non-performing again in the future (not sure if this is correct).Good luck,Eran

Now this needs some explanation.Monthly Rent:  I get an idea of what the monthly rent should be by going to sites like rentometer..6: I multiply the monthly rent by 60% to take out 40% for the following: 10% vacancy, 10% property management, 10% maintenance, 10% property tax and insurance.

This is the same thing as saying "the Gross Multiplier should be less than 8.33".

I do understand it's a small amount but multiply it by 10 properties a year and it quickly adds up. 

The rough way to get your starting point on value is to multiply 23 (occupied pads) * $200 (lot rent) * 12 (months) * (1 - 0.3 (rough expense ratio for park w city water/sewage)) / .085 (cap rate)  = 454K.

Another useful alternative metric to consider for multifam properties is GRM (gross rent multiplier). 

If you are looking to flip it, i still cannot tell if there are multipliers (like rent being too low, or improvements you can make to raise value, ...) that would make this a good investment.

This is the best, most common indicator of value.2) Income approach: The income the property will generate yearly multiplied by a formula for what things sell for in your area.3) What it would cost to build it and what the value of the land is.

,I've done a number of owner financed deals in the past - they can be a pretty nice way to multiply your profits over the long term.

If you don't care about the property letting the tenant do maintenance might work out, but if it's a nice property the odds are really high against this working out well.If you've heard the horror stories about the crazy things DIYers and homeowners do when it comes to working on their own houses, just multiply that by 10 for what a renter will do.