Originally posted by @John Carpino:People thinking there will be no downturn are highly optimistic. there are 4 million people delinquent on their mortgages as of October 2020.

Pretty optimistic on the average occupancy rate in my opinion - I think it's safe to assume you (as well as any newbie) will do worse than what the market shows initially.

I am optimistic and willing to put in the work to cold call/mail/email to try and find an off market deal.

If you believe you have no options but to hire a contractor then you should also find an independent boots on the ground person to verify all work preferable before intermittent or final payments are made.Some new investors make bad decisions because they get overly optimistic about the character of a contractor because they are desperate to get the work completed.

you will got most people telling your crazy to pay cash. few years ago hell last year i would have told you that too. today after iv seen some houses go from 200k to 300k in less then a year i would say go head pay cash for the first few. yes your paying for cash flow up front and not making the same percent. but you will be in the best position for when things crash. this is coming from someone who is optimistic 95% of the time. but people went from spending 30-40 percent of there income on rent/mortgage to 50-60% no research  on that other then looking at rent and average mortgages around my area. buy cash. you currently save 13k a month it will take you no time to save up for a down payment on the next one. worst case you grow slower then others best case things crash and every one telling you your dumb will be begging to partner with you for your ability to take out loans when they cant.  

I do think that you are being overly optimistic in thinking you will find 20 sub2 deals a year.

However, I am remaining optimistic and looking at this as a positive, cause it allows me to continue learning all that I can about the industry, save more money, get business items in order before the opportunity presents itself and dive in!

Assuming $50K on renovations (assuming nothing major comes up in the process) and paying for much of the work to be done, the calculations from your HML are optimistic in terms of profit. 

Either way the numbers really need to make sense; all in at less than 80% of ARV.Also, I might be too optimistic about the savings I will get on off-market deals.

I am optimistic in our investing future and hope one day we can pass on the things we have learned to others!