I currently live in Manhattan, Kansas and I’m pretty optimistic about making my first deal.

reviewing the expenses from there, if they are to low then I just them to be what I know it would cost per units to run the property. like @Gino Barbaro mentioned always work on actual numbers and facts that you have.Most brokers will give you over optimistic proforma that include wrong " lending terms" like lower interest rate, longer Amortization, smaller down payment then what you can actually get from local lender or an agency.

(The property is a .47 acre biggest-on-block lot in Phoenix).I called a seller's agent thinking they could get me the highest price, but even the early discussion, when I'd expect them to be overly optimistic to try to get the business, they said $150K, and if I got an offer for $160K+, he suggested I grab it.Once I have these answers, it's probably time to find a realtor in the area and see what they can find, and a property manager.I'm probably looking for a like-kind exchange, to avoid triggering tax on the sale.

Economists are optimistic the economy will bounce back in the latter half of 2020, growing at a rate of nearly 6% by the end of the year.The Good:April collections came in stronger than most expected.Multifamily as an asset class fared among the best in real estate during the last recessions.

New housing starts unexpectedly plunged more than economists projected in June as home builders grappled with the effects of rising interest rates curbing demand for new homes, according to data released Tuesday, adding to signs of an abrupt turnaround in the booming housing market.KEY FACTSThe number of housing starts, or ​​new houses on which construction has started, fell 2% to about 1.56 million last month despite average economic projections calling for an increase of 1.4%, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday.Building permits were slightly above expectations, coming in at less than 1.7 million, but fell from May and are down from about 1.8 million in April.In emailed comments after the release, LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said housing starts declined because demand is “quickly drying up” from higher borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, though he expects home building activity should hold up despite the grim outlook.Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson was less optimistic, pointing out single-family starts and permits both fell by 8% in their fourth consecutive month of declines and noting construction activity lags sales, which in turn lag mortgage applications.Mortgage applications have collapsed more than 25% this year, he adds, suggesting single-family housing construction "needs to fall by [another] 20% or so over the next few months” to be more in line with demand.The latest data comes one day after the National Association of Home Builders reported the second-worst single-month drop in home builder confidence on record, driven by ongoing production bottlenecks and high inflation that have pushed the cost beyond its market value in some cases.KEY BACKGROUNDHistorically high savings rates and government stimulus measures helped ignite a home buying frenzy during the pandemic, but signs of a slowdown have quickly emerged as the Fed embarks on its most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in two decades to curb high inflation.

I thing your numbers seem optimistic, but maybe not impossible. 

It leaves a very bad taste, and I wouldn't be very optimistic that I would see a return of my capital (my biggest concern as a HML'er).

This has poor Rent to value ratio and your not optimistic on appreciation.  

Stay positive and optimistic.

If you assume an optimistic ratio of 40% for expenses (because you're managing it yourself and you have no "vacancy" on the unit with the lady), that's $900/month.