Seller is the Agent.Seller bought property in January of 2023 for $730,000Current “As Is” Value : $770,000Target Acquisition Price: $730,000-$780,000 After Repaired Value: $900,000Repair Estimate: $120,000Initial Offer Amount: $715,000Loan Program: Bank Statement Program.Total Estimated Monthly Payments (Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance) $5500/month (based on $770k purchase price)Estimated Gross Yearly Income from Short Term Rental: $160,000 (65% Occupancy, $700 a night| (STR Listing Comparable properties Listing 1 Listing 2 Listing 3)Net Monthly Income after management and taxes: $11,751.25Net Monthly Income after Mortgage Payments: $6251.25 ($75,015) Per YearTotal Cash Investment: $297,000 ($177,000 in down payment and closing costs and $120,000 in repairs)Average Yearly Return on Investment: 25% yearlyAverage increase in property value per year: 5%Average increase in booking revenue per year 7.5%Property Value average after 10 years: $1.5 millionTotal Cash received over 10 years: $1.3 million.Total Equity multiple min over 10 years: 6x total return on $297,000 invested.

.- If you try to hire contractor directly, you have about a 90%+ chance of getting taken advantage of.

.#3 Chances are you will never buy a $500,000 property for $30,000. 

I think your PITI estimate in both cases is low.  

If I did set out to invest in the local area, I would scrutinize the numbers like crazy and be extremely conservative with my estimates.

IF you plan on going back someday, and this is the home you want to move back to, then renting it would be a good idea as long as you estimate that it will cover itself, or preferably, cash flow, which it appears that yours will at @ $2K or so per month (after expenses). 

My experience is though, that any fed backed loan, automatically is offered a chance to do a loan mod. 

If I were to do a traditional VA loan, the loan would be close to 7%.Below are what I understand to be the numbers so far:Seller purchased the property in DEC 2022 for $1.13M (owned for 2yrs)Current estimates are Zillow= $1.26M/  Redfin=$1.323MOur agreed purchase price is $1.25MSeller financing would be $120k @ 8% for 3yrs.No commission cost.Small percentage of fees/ costs in the tune of 1.5% of loan amount.Let me know what you think and if you need any additional info.

Your estimate seems low, but even at that cost, it will not add that value.  

So, the chances of someone trying to find the TRUE below market deal in their “spare time” is not great.  40 years ago you could.