@Russell Brazil the seasonal fluctuation in rents is a pattern and this seems to be beyond that.

but again the variables will make that number fluctuate.

Bouncing from 3.2% to 3.4% with what looks like some seasonal fluctuations..

That doesn't take into account market fluctuations as you mentioned so im hoping (at the very least) the market and I can meet somewhere in the middle.

Cap rate will fluctuate for many reasons, but a pretty common reason is supply and demand.  

But be aware that fluctuations in this market are amplified, so projects here are riskier, particularly rehabs that take several months.If you want to buy and hold, go somewhere else.  

Obviously, we all hope that we won't get entangled in foreign wars anymore, but you never know of course.Now if you consider places such as San Antonio military towns, then that's obviously a whole different scenario - plenty of other ways to absorb fluctuations.

Historic fluctuations around 2%, we are at record lows so hard to imagine lower.

That number seems a bit high to me, but I've seen it fluctuate over time with different tenants.

However, it's important to remember that these numbers can fluctuate and there are no guarantees.