Sure you may never see it but really it is not that expensive and I have made worse gambles that never paid off. 

Final thought: The 50% more profit from STR vs Long term rentals seems pretty glamorous...it’s like gambling at a casino and hitting 7’s....and then the dealer changes (regulation/inventory)There are over 2M STR listings in the US alone.

It is too much of a gamble. 

(basically being Certified), the selected contractor is basically 'winging it,' and you're probably taking a gamble. 

Make yourself unique, update your cabin, get creative and hang on….I admire your gamble of being leveraged in the smokies.

But it would be safer than trying to gamble in a gentrifying neighborhood in Atlanta for us beginners.

If you have good tenants who pay on time and you want to kick them out to seek market rents because you have NOT incrementally increased rents to keep within reach of market rents, then you are gambling with the next tenant and their true ability to pay rent. 

My personal feeling is that if you are new to this, this is a huge gamble and if I were your coach/mentor/Guru(evil guy from what I understand on the forums), then I would not recommend it for you based on the info I have here.

I later found out a family squabble led to the sale of the parent's house I was buying and a brother lived there with a gambling problem. 

However; it's very rare to get that if you don't have any kind of track record, as they are gambling that you're going to get a construciton loan and be able to build the project at the price you say you can, and finish it in the time frame.