You don't want to hold cash in the bank because if his prediction of inflation is right any cash will be cut in half by 2019.

Cash to Risk.As the current crisis has once again proved, all models fail according to the old rule, "If there is only one way for a model to fail, it will fail that way with a certainty approaching 100%".So, what I am saying is that, especially after the SEC raised the amount of leverage an institution has on its books, the failure of the VAR models to correctly predict how the banks positions would react to shocks suggests a reasonable solution is to raise the capital ratios again and to look at the VAR model in depth, it doesn't seem to be working or there would have been no need for a bailout.

I know I predicted Lakers over the Cavs, but I'm starting to think the Nuggets look like the strongest overall team out there.

Some items are predictable, some are wildly unpredictable.

I will also add, if you don't let the world know you buy houses, I can predict how many houses you will buy.....There are actually 50 reason we have learned that investors don't act.www.TonySeverino.com/fearchartI don't need your name and email to check it out, no spam, no email list sign up.

I predict that bubble will be worked off, and we'll be back on the long term trend before we start seeing appreciation resume.According to the CPI inflation calculator, inflation has averaged 4% from 1950 to 2000.

Most lenders are in the 6 – 12 month range for cash out refi’s that is why some with cash use a hard money lender – or have a third party hold a note/mortgage so you can do a rate and term refi.Talk to your lender about the rate and term side of it as it may be worth having someone hold a note/mortgage on it for you.Eddie – the banker I use is out of town till the end of month – but if you remind me I am happy to see what lenders she uses to get 6 months.Either way – trying to predict the appraised value (let alone rules) 6-12 months down the road will be the biggest challenge – as Eddie mentioned.

The HOA fees can end up making expenses go above the 50% predicted.

The record high was 7.8 percent in 1986.So much for all the people that subscribe to the idea that you should try to predict each expense when evaluating a property.

What's your prediction and how will it affect things?