I think it depends on your time horizon Jack.

Right now my plan is to hold till at least 2021 and see what will be on the horizon in terms of Jobs being created and overall city growth at that time.

If you're still Positive CF with the adjustments but the valuation won't be enough to refinance, you may want to consider extending your time horizon by 5-10 years (assuming you believe the rent demand will still be around in a decade for that neighborhood).

@Dan Heuschele I suppose totally dependant on your time horizon, and cost of stuff.

I won't live there, but I can find people for whom that's a normal part of life who will rent from me.There are some things on the horizon and some amenities that I feel will usher change for my rental property.

There are some deals with higher cash flow but little no upside, some with a mix of cash flow and equity upside, and then those deals where little to no cash flow for awhile but then higher cash flow and equity growth on the back end.The time horizon makes a big difference as well.

Unless there is an unknown banking crisis on the horizon, it's just wishful thinking by investors hoping prices drop so they can buy more and PTSD from the Financial Crisis, which is just recentcy bias.

From MLS Records: $148,900 sold 2/12/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1117$145,000 sold 7/19/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1127$132,000 sold 8/7/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #713$131,188 sold 9/11/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #1017$115,500 sold 10/7/19: 45 Maleena Mesa St #716$151,500 sold 4/19/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #215$140,500 sold 6/21/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #914$125,500 sold 8/30/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #2113$130,000 sold 9/13/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #424$129,500 sold 10/8/19: 231 Horizon Ridge #1025$119,000 Now Asking: 231 Horizon Ridge #1215$150,000 sold 3/22/19: 2300 Silverado #1131$158,700 sold 7/5/19: 2300 Silverado #2051$120,000 sold 8/6/19: 2300 Silverado #2019$116,400 sold 8/19/19: 2300 Silverado #2079

You can see when the (annualized) quarterly appreciation rate is falling below or above the annual appreciation rate, although you can also see some seasonality for low Q4 numbers..And like most areas, there is a correlation between the rate of job growth and the rate of home price appreciation..And changes in economic conditions slightly precede changes in jobs..Nothing scary on the horizon, but again, it looks like we are past peak appreciation and in the deceleration phase..

When you flip almost ALL risks are magnified because the time horizon is shorten from 10-30 years to 1.5% of a B&H.Don't misunderstand me, I DO flip.