There is no such thing as one bank or mortgage company that's the right total value proposition for all use-cases, it's necessary to factor in both "hard" costs like rate and points, and "soft" costs such as how fast do they go and how easy are they to work with, to find the right home for that particular loan.Since this is a refi and not time-sensitive: If you are super busy and your time is worth $100/hr, I'd say #1 is a no-brainer.

The pro formas are so sensitive to cap rates if the market moves sideways the next five years you are left holding the bag.

Using a sensitivity analysis you can do your best to determine what your expected returns could be for a particular property.Maybe the big time investors developing, purchasing or refinancing the Class A properties that cost $100M+ (which will be hit first and hardest IMO) have a better understanding of future changes in their markets than us?

It is odd how they target my house with so many serious, visible, time-sensitive issues going on with about a quarter of the houses on the block.

You are technically correct that a longer duration security will by definition have more sensitivity to interest rates.

Good luck Pavel - you already know this, but CA is getting hyper-sensitive about STR/Airbnb type rentals.

Most legit HMLs are sensitive to the scamming and may ask something nominal - a few hundred to begin processing.

My computer has a very sensitive and makes many actions assuming I wanted that. 

To be sure, home prices in lower-income neighborhoods are quite sensitive to economic conditions and availability of financing, so a recession or credit crisis could quickly stop (or at least delay) the positive trend. 

Check with other lenders if it's time sensitive, otherwise if they are offering low cost refi and good rates, then wait.