Wow, I would predict no one in there right mind would pay $261k for this property it is worth $150 MAX in the state it is in. 

While taxes are higher this year than last, there are a number of POSITIVE factors (rent rate, vacancy rate, and turn over rate) that offset that very predictable annual expense.That said, I endorse DSM for investing overall but it comes down to your individual investing strategy.

The HOAs are fixed and cover the water costs so my numbers are firm and predictable.

However, I cannot predict the future and managing risk is an important consideration for a real estate investor.First, I have never had a lender enforce the due on sale clause.

You can still buy for appreciation but you can't predict the future.

Any future predictions are pro-forma and don't reflect the current state and performance of the property, therefore can't factor in the purchase price.I'm assuming you a buying with anticipation of value-add, and that is what you do with the property after you buy it.  

You can talk to Realtors, but there's not going to be many that will predict a crash and tell you to wait it out!

And I was curious as to how he could predict that before purchasing.

No one truly knows when/if the market will tank, it's been predicted for the past several years now and I wouldn't wait around on it and miss good opportunities.Get the ball rolling!!

Purchase price: 55kRepair Cost: 20kProjected ARV: 100-110kExpected Rent: 1750/moWith a predicted 75% refinance value coming in at $82-85kI do not have the money or private money to help me do a conventional loan.