Having good representation is crucial, especially when dealing with uncontrollable factors.

You're basically gambling on the property a) not depreciating or losing value in the between your purchase and refinance and b) leaving A LOT up to chance with the appraised value coming in higher than your debt outstanding, and doing so with a significant enough of a margin where you're either not coming to the closing table with cash or cashing-out.

Furthermore, since we don't plan to live in this place long term, any chance of enjoying the benefits of refinancing when rates drop eventually are also a gamble.

If you really really want it, then accept 250.Remember, the other side is also gambling.

Appreciation is always a gamble - the past will not necessarily look like the future (especially in California).

It could appreciate but I consider that gambling.

Sometimes you have hot years and others are a bit slower.Each decision is a gamble…a risk you take based on the best information you’ve gathered from research and wise counsel.

I don't gamble at all, but the feeling is reminiscent to what one may feel after hitting a "jackpot." 

As a title rep, my stance is of course to advise not to gamble your money and take on the risks yourself, BUT depending on your goals for the property, you may be safe in your decision.

That sounds like one of those Vegas stories where someone claims someone stole their money out of the hotel safe when the reality was they gambled it away when drunk and forgot all about it.I don't think all those threats are helpful, though.