When a person does such foolish things they forget, your gambling EVERYTHING, that NOTHING will EVER happen to blow open the door of accountability. 

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes you get shot.It sure needs renovation as a city but until there is a change of political will, it's a gamble.

They were told only cashflow mattered and they shouldn’t “gamble on appreciation” but nobody told them they were “gambling on cashflow” like it was guaranteed if your spreadsheet said it was. 

The only time I’ve ever been audited is when I rounded up the amount on a 1099-g gambling win, to the next dollar as I round all my entries.

It's certainly a gamble...one that I've never seen gurus share with their students.

In direct answer to your question, from what I've read and from what people have stated, even though they don't understand why, "gator lender" is more gambling than investing.

It’s always a bit of a gamble and I personally tend to error on the more cautious side.

Agreed, but I don't want to bank most of my net worth on a low probability gamble if I can help it.It often isn't worth their time to go after the equity if they have to deal with paying off a bank loan.

So I am taking a big gamble on rates being lower in two years.  

I don't gamble in the stock market.Isn't part of it, that you can create generational wealth by investing outside of a 401(k) into real estate and pass those houses down tax free to the next generation using the stepped up basis?