An owner trades the predictability of a low Flat Fee (which is typically charged every month whether property vacant or occupied, tenant paying or not), for less PMC alignment with the owner's interests.

It's difficult trying to predict where the rates will go.

My grandmother lived there for many years when I was growing up (I always think of the massive shark head store there), but I don’t think even she would have predicted how much it would rise.

What if appreciation and the prediction of appreciation was the metric to be used over the hold period?

But we do have a few other things we didn't have ten years ago: A historic housing shortage caused by 15 years of under-development and driven by a demographic shift (demographic changes are as predictable as time itself), very high purchase and rental demand, and continued upward pressure on rents and prices.I agree with you that in many ways it has gotten harder to invest.

However, this comes with the risk that market conditions or interest rates could change, making refinancing or selling more challenging at that time.On the other hand, a conventional 30-year mortgage offers long-term stability and predictability.

The thing about reserves is that you can't predict when something will break so you could be way off if you do calculations on life span.

I am currently surveying the NC market for a 3bd 2 ba home that is predicted to appreciate over time. 

It can generate better returns, or at least more predictable returns than other asset classes like stocks, bonds, crypto, and other alternatives. 

How low will it go, no one really knows, but I agree with predictions of 20-25%.