The high HOA fee is already a factor, so ensure you’re comfortable with the overall carrying costs.Focus on the Land Value: Since the lot has development potential, you’re looking at this as a long-term investment.

You should have a good idea of every expense you have in your primary home, then add the STR specific:  (These are rough estimate numbers, depending on various factors)STR insurance - a special insurance that covers both the property and your liability, could be $2~4k in areas without natural disasters, could be more than $10k in some other areas.cleaning fee - approx. $50 per bedroom, so a 4-bedroom house will cost you about $150~200consumables - bathroom supplies, kitchen supplies, beverage supplies: $20~30 per week, depending on how much you providewear and tear - towels, linen, kitchen utensils, some furniture: $1000~2000 per yearRepairs/replacement for things that guests break or steal:  $1000~2000 per yearAlso, if your personal use is less than 14 days a year, the entire property's expense is deductible against STR income, but if you use more than 14 days, then you will have to calculate the proportion of how many days it's rented out vs how many days you or your family uses. 

The popcorn machine is nice, but not something that will be a deciding factor in bookings. 

The important factors of a consolidation exchange are the reinvestment requirements and the time frame requirements.

Then remember to factor in vacancy and turn over cost.

Factor 8%-10% for a reliable property manager (use AllPropertyManagement.com).After that, you're golden.

What further analysis should I be honing in on and key factors/metrics/info that may be providing inaccurate numbers?

Maintenance costs are a huge factor in the profitability, or not of any investment property. 

Another factor is that insurance coverage is only for the actual building cost to rebuild the structure.

When I'm looking at potential opportunity, price isn't that big of a factor.