I don't have the tax knowledge to do a predictive type model comparing the two, so sharing your tax experience is helpful. 

You need to understand they have models that can predict the risk down to zipcode/census tract. they need to reduce their loses with risky areas that have high property crime rates.

Predictability: Sure over 30 years maybe the market averages are higher.

This probably wouldn't work for USMC bases that I was at, where permanent wartime deployment tempos is the norm even if there aren't any wars on, but by contrast many of those Army units just stay in Kentucky of Texas for a decade at a time until a war breaks out, meaning (one would predict) housing demand goes down when wars go up, and comes back up when wars wind down.Again, I wasn't smart enough to be doing this while still in, so this is speculation.

My prediction: you are never going to find anyone who is going to help you finance this, so set your sights lower.

I use it as a source of data (among many) for predicting future home prices in my market of Chicago.

On the other hand this could be my doorway to less financial stress and a start to my future.Here is my predicted scenario.MFH 2 unitPurchase price $60-$90k, FHA loan

At this price point, understand that it's a high risk investment, and that buying something to use for a long term lease will be much more predictable, just not quite as high of an earning potential. 

It is hard to predict exactly how things will go, but the trend seems to be gradually positive to me.

Business WireLas Vegas Housing MarketFor the general Las Vegas housing market, the Las Vegas Review-Journal summarized the 2016 outlook as follows:Vegas housing market to make respectable gains in 2016 Las Vegas Review-JournalWhat We Are Anticipating in 2016Our predictions are based on the following assumptions:• Interest rates will rise in 2016 but at a modest rate.