Check out  EverBooked ,  Mashvisor , and  AirDNA for some very accurate and cool data to gain more certainty on Airbnb rental predictions.

It would be a big gamble to buy this thing and not break even and then enter into any sort of issues with maintenance or finances.

First part; Zillow is not very accurate you may wish to get a BPO from a local real estate office.

Your friends are accurate that you are ahead because of your savings.

Never assume the numbers in a listing or Pro Forma are accurate-they very rarely are.

That's not even factoring the accurate insurance expense amount.

i think if you look at around 750 or less for rents you will be more accurate in your projections.  

My recommendation would be to meet with a CPA and get an accurate idea of what the taxes would like under a few different scenarios.

My view is both those owners got lucky but maybe they accurately predicted a lack of near term appreciation. 

It might have enough appreciation to offset all the money you throw at the house in payments and maintenance, taxes, etc, but if you want to gamble with your money, there's better ways to do it.I think you need to start with goals and decide if this deal lives up to your deal standards.