No coaching program, called multifamily brokers in my areas, have a regular job, and have 3rd party PM.

I fire clients regularly. 

And that's not even taking into account the regular tenant BS.

At the same time depreciation recapture is taxed at regular tax rates, not capital gain rate.

Rent growth is a function of supply, demand, and interest rates:- I'd ground any forecast by stating I expect national rents to rise on a pace more or less in line with inflation over any long time period. 2-3% per year.

And the reason why your "tale of two halves" will play out as you described.Demand:  This has actually been high almost all along, but rent growth hasn't materialized in response due to high levels of new supply. 

I live in Honolulu currently but used to live in Tokyo (mother is Japanese) and still travel there on a regular basis (pre-Covid).

Just make sure all pieces are accounted for regularly.

In Chicago it regularly dips below 32.

I'm in Ohio and we see those lower loan amounts pretty regularly.