Total users double every year is the math on that.

So unless the Fed is willing to start dropping hundreds of basis points at a time and without doubt unleashing a significant inflation "spring", or Fed's stepping in to convey some form of CRE finance relief something...... well the math is clear, Q1/Q2 '25' is gonna get real interesting real fast for Commercial Properties. 

I have yet to do the exact math.

$500,000 after taxes is likely close to $325,000(maybe more or maybe less).Assuming cash-flow from rentals is offset by depreciation, you would need $325,000 of annual cash-flow from the rentals.If you can get $200 / door / monthYou would need 135 doorsYou can work on this type of math to figure out how much rentals you need.Be mindful that rentals require some type of work.

although we bought about 6 years ago or so for 270 put 100k into it so you can do the math  no debt .. hoa 400  we pay utls. 200 or so.. so 600 a month out of the 3500.. tax's about 1500 a year ( got to love Vegas taxs ) value today right at 600k.. so lets say we net about 33k a year on 370k cash .. so not bad little under 10% COC with an outstanding tenant one of the best I have ever had.PS given tenant quality we manage ourselves.. 

Today's math is 10-15% down, and re-house hack every 3-7 years.In italics, this is a fine goal but be realistic.

I have to agree with the math from @Don Konipol.

I am a first-time investor and am looking for a location (hopefully) where I can get decent appreciation while not having the risk of crazy negative cash flow (like one sees when doing the math on opportunities in Seattle, for example).

The math isn’t mathing.  

Do the math on how much more you can rent for after a remodel an how long that will take to pay off the upgrades.