(assuming rates are where they are today and rental prices increase during that time)Now, this may not need to be a 5 year lease.

These start failing after 50+ years, causing lots of backups and problems.

In 2022 the rents increased 12.1% year over year which was the 3rd highest in the entire country per https://www.axios.com/local/cleveland/2023/02/14/cleveland-rent-prices.

Not to mention they’re going to want a balloon in 3-5 years.

that we’ve learned in our 24 years, managing almost 700 doors across the Metro Detroit area, including almost 100 S8 leases:Class A Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 3-5 years for positive cashflow, but you get highest relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% the more recent norm.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 680+ (roughly 5% probability of default), zero evictions in last 7 years.Class B Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, decent amount of relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% should be applied only if proper research done to support.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 620-680 (around 10% probability of default), some blemishes, but should have no evictions in last 5 yearsClass C Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, high cashflow and at the lower end of relative rent & value appreciation.

I shows my what dates people are searching for this year and last year.

Assuming this is an 8 cap neighborhood you'd have a ~$420-450k value within a year (unless property taxes are crazy high) when leases would renew since it'd be valued as a commercial building with the office space.

Nothing can guarantee that.Looking back over 30 years and hundreds of deals I can recall only two occasions when a greedy homeowner tried to bail on our deal. 

Value add $2mm after 2 years.  

We were running out of money to continue carrying the property, so we took it.We refinanced all our existing debt into a new 30 yr loan for $2M, which was 10 years IO at 8.375% before going principal + interest in years 11-30.