I have been saying this for 1.5 yrs and have met a lot of resistance on BP.

General rule of thumb I have heard is that carpet in a rental is expected to last about 5 years.The real fix here is buying premium higher traffic resistant carpet, or converting to a hard flooring on your next replacement, like LVP. 

Nice weather.

Will most people fail, unfortunately, yes weather they join the Gator Tribe of something else.Pace makes a lot of money with everything he does.

The city's experiencing massive population growth...from what I've heard, people are moving here for the booming job market and, well, the great weather doesn't hurt.

While completing a Cost Seg study, they were very resistent to me using 6% and because of time-sensitivity, I decided to default to the "rule of thumb" method that you mentioned and used 80/20. 

What is my exit strategy if things don't go according to plan; also, do I have enough reserves to weather some storms with this property3.

Another thing to consider could be that if the property is further north where winter weather can impact them then you may see buyers less willing to move then. 

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs: We live two blocks from McDonalds, my son worked at McDonalds, he had a car, the weather was nice, but he would still order from DoorDash.

You may find it useful to seek an unofficial preliminary meeting with the local powers-that-be to get a read on how much resistance there's likely to be with your development, as well as getting an early read on things they'll "suggest" to make necessary approvals more likely.