Because no one can predict when someone will become motivated.

First, you would need to subtract allowances for repairs and vacancies (a necessary prediction).

Worst case is hard to predict of course but I guess you end up losing the place or paying them a lot of money as in cash for keys.How would you handle maintenance?

LTR offers predictable cash flow, less management, and lower income.

This property was originally a fixer-upper that I finally brought to a point where it is in good condition, has good tenants and good, predictable cash-flow.

Go on hikes instead of football games.

FWIW the house is a 5/3 and walking distance to campus and football stadium.

Hey investors, I'm the new Market Intelligence Analyst here at BiggerPockets, and I'm developing a way to predict the future "path of progress" for a given market.

I do think the MTR/STR mix makes the most sense for Austin - MTR most of the year but switch to STR to maximize during the hottest travel months (spring for SXSW, fall for ACL/Formula One/UT Football)

There are too many variables to get any kind of meaningful prediction.