This year so far there up 18% and everyone is predicting at least a 40% increase.

Trying to predict the future (especially in a declining market) is impossible.The principal paydown would be about $1,300 per month.So, the actual monthly gain would be $1,150 + $1,300 = $2,450, not $8,500.

Some, like evictions or a tenant wrecking the place are very sproadic (hopefully), so knowing the past doesn't predict the future.

I'm thinking about buying a name list then plugging the scrubbed names into a predictive dialer.

From the investor’s perspective this market correction is God Sent.I predict that this shift in the market will cause with two basic positive results to emerge:1.An increase in market rents on single family residential2.An increase in available inventory priced at 60 -70% of the market value.For more info check outhttp://www.kiplinger.com/features/archives/2007/03/foreclosure.html

I would predict the asking price is already a good $10K below FMV.

That is exactly my problem...I have no idea how to predict where or when a housing market will shift for better or worse.

Don't recall if its this book on another, but one author is predicting very large price drops in the coming years.

But, how can you possibly predict the future and then work that into the purchase price?

If you don't account for this and other predictable expenses, your business will fail unless you are prepared to pay all of these expenses out of your pocket.