Either will allow us to wait out the worst of the volatility and target new solutions when we see a rates come down.Regarding a value add purchase, this can be approached with by a prudently conservative underwrite of the deal.

The flip side of "up and comming" also means higher volatility and higher uncertainty.That said, I am a fan of West Allis.

Stocks are more volatile than real estate, bonds, or cash.

., assuming STR returns will be as non-volatile as LTR returns during an economic downturn.

How do they factor in the volatility of stock-based compensation? 

A bigger risk I see for you than recessions is starting off with a short term rental especially while things are volatile.  

I have a decent set of cost data from those builds, but all the material and labor cost inflation/volatility of the last two years make it an imperfect calculation for price checking my GC's latest bid for the townhomes.

Statistics suggest that Oklahoma is one of the less volatile markets and cash flowing properties are abundant.

Add to that the volatility that comes from neighborhood run HOA boards and the market is uncertain. 

As for the HELOC, I have a hard time considering that option because interest rates are volatile, and I think that type of loan would probably be better for a fix & flip.