Therefore, it is a very complicated mathematical model.

Mathematically it doesn't make sense to invest, however I am comfortable in this market and I know it very well.

In mathematics it is called "Proof Theory" It is a WHOLE field of mathematics one can get into... and yes I went into it.

If you think pure mathematically, the amount of tenants out there who are going to stay 5+ years and move during "normal" months is always going to be drastically lower than the folks who move ever 1-2 years and all months of the year. 

I absolutely get the mathematical reasons. 

There application wasn't the greatest but they were the most qualified at the time and I knew they could mathematically afford it based on the data in the credit report. 

Because we desperately want and need these questions answered, and because of the basic "truth" of people paying more for more and less for less, and because we believe (mistakenly IMO) that appraisal is nothing more than math and therefore a mathematical solution must exist out there somewhere if we could only identify it, that it is in fact possible to answer these questions/valuation problems.

What's interesting about this is the use of the word speculators, because if there's a quantifiable increase in value based on changes made to a property based on mathematics and past personal experience, is it really still speculation?

Check your situation to see if that is the case.You just need to mathematically model your options and see what comes out the best.I am skeptical of your statement that the refi is with $0 closing costs and no points. 

It's almost a mathematical certainty.