You'll then see that delinquency rates are:- At their lowest point since 2006- Historically on the low side of normal - On an overall downward trend for the past 4 yearsIn fact, excluding the artificially propped-up mortgage market of 2004-2006 during which delinquency rates were slightly lower than they are today, bottoming out at 1.41% in 2005, there are fewer mortgage delinquencies today than at any time in the past 33 years.By the way, when these scant 1.73% of homeowners become delinquent on their mortgages, they overwhelmingly have the equity to be able to sell the home at a gain if needed.

I won't be investing in the riskiest/most supportable asset subclasses such as hotels, and tilt my portfolio the ones that have historically been more stable such as multifamily and single-family housing.

I understand that historically, rates are pretty average, so i dont see them coming down much.America is significantly undersupplied in housing.

I openly share the historical performance of my Detroit rentals for anyone interested.

:Class A Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 3-5 years for positive cashflow, but you get highest relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% the more recent norm.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 680+ (roughly 5% probability of default), zero evictions in last 7 years.Class B Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, decent amount of relative rent & value appreciation.Vacancy Est: Historically 10%, 5% should be applied only if proper research done to support.Tenant Pool: Majority will have FICO scores of 620-680 (around 10% probability of default), some blemishes, but should have no evictions in last 5 yearsClass C Properties:Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, high cashflow and at the lower end of relative rent & value appreciation.

I also have columns for cash flow (true cash flow after historic avg expenses) and the most recent month's debt paydown.

The goal is to determine whether the government accurately adjusts DoD Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) rates and to develop a predictive model to calculate possible future BAH rates for specific locations.We have pulled rental data from Zillow and historical BAH rates from the DoD.

You have already seen the downside of a historically zero appreciation market (zero appreciation I define as historically below the rate of inflation).  

Historically it was used as an office for the previous building owner. 

Does anyone have an historic framework in mind that we can use to navigate todays reality?