My point is new construction.. with lot prices basically set .. unless lot prices crash and labor and materials crash . basic spread on new construction is 20% so today to build a 800k home its gong to cost  620k to build.. if market for new builds that were 800k come down to 620k there will be no new houses built.. banks wont fund them builders wont do it for practice.. the hangover inventory will get liquidated and those props wont see much of a profit. 

They drink books, articles, podcasts, classes, etc until they have a blurry-eyed hangover and then they repeat. 

This alone might be reason enough to say "no" to him generally.He probably has the right to trim the branches that hang over his PL.~ Scott

@Russell Brazil  Russell I also feel that you cant start this run in 08... to me 08 to 2012 was its own separate cycle and that we did not really start to rebound until 2012 to 2103.. so in my mind and it could be very diluted thinking as I am no economist or expert in high finance .. but it seems to me we are 5 or 6 years into a 10 year cycle.. it took in my mind from starting in FLA in 07 ish to 2012 to 2013 just to flush through the hangover inventory reset capital markets un thaw credit and get back into business..